The VIX jumped 11% as a sign of increased market caution, especially with real-time inflation estimates suggesting that headline inflation is likely to pull further ahead in August. That said, market participants took the chance to de-risk further, sending all three major US indices lower by more than 1%. Month-on-month, retail sales were up 0.7% versus the 0.4% consensus, reflecting the prevailing resilience in US consumer demand. The July retail sales figure increased 3.2% from the previous year, far outpacing the 1.5% forecast. The pull-ahead in US retail sales yesterday provided some validation for soft landing hopes but also left room for rates to be kept high for longer, with market sentiments seemingly placing their focus on the latter.
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